Front Range Real Estate Market Update, May 18, 2023

Home prices in the metro area are rising again, but less swiftly than last year. Prices have risen about 8% since the beginning of the year. Last year at this time, prices had risen about 14% since January.

Still, prices are lower than they were a year ago. They decreased substantially between their peak in May 2022 to their low in January 2023 and haven’t made up for the decrease.

If prices rise another 7%, they’ll be similar to their peak last May.

For buyers trying to time the market – something we don’t recommend – it is challenging to know whether to wait or buy now. People who buy now may be able to purchase a home before prices rise even more. On the other hand, buyers who wait may get a lower interest rate but could pay more for a home.

There’s a reasonable chance rates will go down.

Odeta Kush, chief economist at First American, says, “Since 1972, the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage has, on average, remained 170 basis points higher than the 10-year treasury bond yield. That spread in the month of April was about 290 basis points. In other words, mortgage rates are very high, abnormally high, relative to treasuries.“

Zillow also predicts that mortgage rates will go down as long as the U.S. doesn’t default on its debt.

Still, buyers who wait for lower rates may face more competition for homes and higher prices. If rates go down, more buyers will enter the market.

It’s unlikely rates will be as low as they were during the pandemic any time soon.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, says, “Returning to mortgage rates of 3% or 4% is not going to happen, in my view.”

This is all to say that we don’t generally recommend trying to time the housing market, which can be very difficult. If you plan to live in your home for five years or more, remember that you can always refinance to a lower interest rate if rates go down.

If you want to move soon, hire a professional to help guide you and get the best deal possible. Shop around for the best interest rate and the lowest fees – don’t just talk to one lender and take advantage of programs that can help you pay less.