The market continues to shift and become different from the one we experienced in 2020 and 2021. Last year and the year before, interest rates fell and demand for homes – and home prices – skyrocketed. It wasn’t uncommon for sellers to choose from 20 or more offers. 

Mortgage interest rates are one reason the market has changed, and they continue to rise and fall. A month ago, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.11%. Today, the average was at 5.74%, providing some relief to buyers. 

Interest rates may continue to rise, but they certainly won’t increase in a straight line – there are bound to be dips along the way. You may want to ask your lender about the availability of a “float down lock,” which allows you to lock in an interest rate, but if rates go lower, you can access the lower rate.

Take a look at the numbers below, and you’ll see that there’s been a significant rise in inventory. The increase in supply will certainly benefit buyers. Almost 26% more homes came on the market during the past seven days than during the week before. 

With inventory increasing and softening demand due to higher interest rates, the question we keep hearing is, “Will home prices fall?” 

We don’t love making predictions, but we will say that we don’t think home prices will fall in Metro Denver during the next five years. They may fluctuate a bit, but we don’t expect them to go down for any significant length of time. And the reason for that is as simple as understanding supply and demand. 

Right now, supply is a little bit higher and demand is a little bit lower than it’s been. But other factors are likely to influence where prices move in the longer term.

For the past 14 years, we’ve built fewer homes than we did, on average, each year since 1970. So, there aren’t enough homes available to make prices drop. Second, Millennials are now between 25 and 34, and, despite what some news reports say, they want to purchase homes. This generation will continue to drive demand for some time.

We expect home prices to rise at more normal historical rates – between 3% and 4% per year for the next few years, rather than the huge increases we saw during 2020 and 2021. We think that’s what we’re seeing now – a move from 20% per year appreciation to something closer to 4%. We don’t expect home prices to fall.

Would you like an accurate estimate of your home’s value? Call David and Tom at 720-782-2468 or schedule a free phone consultation.